Trump’s Fake Negotiation on the Russian Invasion

In a world where global tensions are reaching unprecedented levels, the question of how the war in Ukraine will end and what role world leaders like Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin, and Xi Jinping will play remains a central issue. In this article, we explore the potential outcomes of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, examining the psychology, motivations, and actions of these key figures. By analyzing their past behaviors, leadership styles, and geopolitical strategies, we can begin to understand the complex dynamics at play and what the future might hold for Ukraine, Europe, and the world. From Trump’s unpredictable antics to Putin’s ruthless pursuit of power, this article delves into the dangerous game being played at the highest levels of global politics.

Trump

Trump is an imperialist and wannabe dictator, according to his own first mandate’s chief of staff. Trump officially asked to shoot protesters and nuke North Korea and was shocked when his chief of staff told him that he couldn’t shoot civilians and needed the support of Congress to go to war. According to his own niece, Mary Trump, PhD in clinical psychology, Donald Trump is a psychopath and pathological narcissist, with "the brain of a 3-year-old," to quote her. Also, the only book he ever read, according to his ex-wife, is a book about Hitler’s speeches. His only source of knowledge is TV (specifically the far-right Fox News) and his "friends." According to several national security advisers who worked for him, as well as the White House chief of staff during his first mandate, he has an attention span of no more than 5 minutes and doesn’t seriously prepare for any negotiations, preferring overly simplistic catchphrases. These are not just my opinions—these are the opinions of experts from his own side, who worked closely with him.

In plain English, he’s the textbook definition of stupidity.

For comparison, Hitler was also by no means smart, according to his own generals, but Hitler was an ideologue. Hitler had horrible ideals, but he believed in these ideals. Trump doesn’t believe in anything but his own personal glory at the expense of everyone else, including his fellow citizens.

Trump wants to wreck chaos wherever he goes to attract attention, whatever the damage, under the completely superficial false pretense of "improving his country’s situation." The true goal of Trump is grabbing attention, no matter the costs or consequences. He doesn’t care about moral virtue or ideals. He doesn’t even care about business or money. He’s not even a good businessman in the first place, with six major bankruptcies on his resume. His own biography is a pack of lies, according to the man who wrote it. He only cares about looking good. That’s a mental illness, not a personality or governance trait. The President of the United States is mentally ill in a very peculiar way. It’s important to understand the situation to understand how things will unfold.

Recently, after slapping steep tariffs on all US ally countries—because slapping enemies would not generate much publicity—he threatened to seize Greenland, Canada, and the Panama Canal. He even threatened the Danish Prime Minister over a phone call to the point that Denmark voted the same week to approve a budget of 2 billion euros to build new military frigates to protect Greenland. He’s that serious about his threats.

But from Trump’s perspective, it’s all a show. He doesn’t care about any of these countries. He just wants to keep the whole planet’s attention on him every single day. It doesn’t actually matter for him if he gets Greenland, Canada, or Panama, or none of them. All that matters for him is that everyone talks about him non-stop. He’s in the business of provocation. Every day, he can’t help himself but find something even more shocking to say or do. Remember, it’s a mental illness—he can’t do anything about it.

So, what is Trump going to do? Very simple: be outrageous. Both in statements and actions. Every single time. To capture attention. He’s very predictable in that aspect.

I can’t say exactly which outrageous statement or act he will make, but I can guarantee you that no normal person will consider his statements and actions healthy, because they are designed that way on purpose. If it were the "right" thing to say or do, it would make few headlines—the exact opposite of what Trump wants.

Remember last week when he wanted to transform Gaza into the "Riviera," after sending all Palestinians to Egypt and Saudi Arabia, both of which responded with, "What the heck, dude?" This is all about provocation. He has no interest in sending armies anywhere—unless he can grab headlines doing so. So he will one day, but we’ll never know which country exactly he will invade because he’s here only for the show, not for a realistic agenda.

Putin

Then we have Putin—Trump’s Soviet alter ego.

I say "Soviet" because Putin’s mental software was forged during his time in the Soviet KGB. But it’s not the textbook socialism or communism. No. It’s a real mafia disguised with socialist features to make Westerners believe that Russia is a great nation. And this subterfuge works, to some extent. Like Trump, Putin doesn’t have any ideals or moral compass. Putin is all about power. Putin doesn’t care about looking good or even being rich. Putin just wants everyone to fear him in order to force everyone to obey him. Putin doesn’t need to have his name in big letters on a skyscraper. Putin just wants everyone to know that he can throw anyone out of the windows of that skyscraper with a simple phone call. Putin rules through fear. His weapons of choice are persecution, torture, and terrorism. That’s why Russia is a genocidal terrorist mafia. It’s the combination of everything Putin wants. He even managed to make the whole country support him and want the same through decades of intense national propaganda. Meanwhile, there are still people in the West who have no idea that every single day, Russian national TV channels threaten to nuke Paris, Berlin, and London.

Some people believe Putin wants Ukraine, or "only" Ukraine. Not exactly. Putin wants to inflict maximum suffering to raise his influence. That’s why he targets civilians instead of armies in Ukraine, as he doesn’t see it as a waste of valuable military resources. He sees it as an investment in his international threat levels. The only time Putin will want to temporarily pause his invasion of Ukraine is simply to restock his army and return to full-scale expansion across Europe, up to Berlin. He’s mentioned this multiple times on TV since 2008. It’s absolutely impossible to make any agreement with someone who has constantly betrayed everyone for the past 25 years. Only an idiot like Trump would want to.

Putin’s motto is: "What is mine is mine, and what is yours is negotiable."

As Andrei Gromyko, a Soviet diplomat, said about Russian negotiations: "First, demand the maximum, particularly things that have never been yours. Second, present ultimatums and threats, including military invasion and nuclear threats. Third, do not give one inch in negotiations because there will always be people in the West to offer you something. Eventually, you’ll get one third or one half of something without having to fight for it." This is an old playbook dating back to the 1960s, more than 50 years ago.

This is exactly how Putin always negotiates, as he sees all negotiations as opportunities to get something for free, while refusing categorically any compromise.

One Year from Now

So, what’s going to happen, knowing how these two psychopaths work?

It’s very simple.

Putin will demand much more than what he has. He will refuse every single compromise.

Trump will want to look good and sign a deal fast, at any cost. So, he will throw Ukraine under the bus. This will be his perfect outrageous declaration to grab attention.

In practice, Trump is going to announce that he found a ceasefire deal with Putin, and that Ukraine will have to surrender to Russia "in order to stop the carnage," with the peace being guaranteed by EU forces.

Of course, neither Zelensky nor the EU will be invited to the negotiation table, because otherwise, they would never agree to such outrageous terms. But remember, the terms are outrageous on purpose for Trump, not as a trade-off. And Putin would have never compromised diplomatically for any reason. Putin understands only military strength.

Then, Trump can "look good" by blaming Ukraine and Europe for their "refusal to cooperate" with what he will qualify as being "the best interest of America." He will later use it as a pretext to slap the EU and Ukraine with tariffs for "non-compliance with his agreement with Putin" while removing sanctions against Russia to do more business with them.

I’m afraid to announce that the United States is on the verge of becoming officially hostile to the free world through Donald Trump.

This is by design from Trump’s perspective, as it would make a US invasion of Greenland, then Panama, and ultimately Canada much more convenient, after infuriating all previous US allies for good reasons. If Trump did find a fair deal with Ukraine and the EU, he would have fewer pretexts to seize Greenland.

Fundamentally, Trump would prefer the war to end badly for Ukraine so he can claim territories exactly like Russia. Let alone his personal grief with Zelensky, who refused to get involved in Trump’s blackmail attempt to get fake accusations against Biden’s family.

Will history unfold that way? No one knows, but I estimate the probability of such a scenario at 60%. As a reminder, in January 2022, I wrote a 30-page report on the imminent Russian invasion of Ukraine, concluding with a 65% chance of invasion in the last week of February. I was correct back then.

Three Years from Now

What will happen to Ukraine and Europe in that situation?

Europe will feel the pressure, both economically and militarily. Russia will be able to advance faster in Ukraine, where Zelensky will be forced to trade more territory without US help, while maintaining a moderate casualty rate. The absence of Patriot missiles will make Kinzhal missile attacks on Kyiv more frequent. The EU will be forced to give more. Eventually, the Russian frozen assets will be given to Ukraine for its defense, as it will become a matter of the survival of 500 million Europeans.

But eventually, Russia will collapse anyway under the unbearable war costs. Currently, most of the war costs are hidden in Russian private bank loans. Putin is essentially secretly printing money to pay for this war, in order to make the West believe Russia can handle it. But this creates unsustainable levels of inflation without building any productive investment for the future—just guns and explosives.

The problem, however, is that Russia can also get fresh cash by doing business with the US if Trump lifts the sanctions, and China can see it as a sign of better odds and lend more to Russia. China would also see the invasion of Taiwan as much less risky with a complicit Trump president.

In that context, with a tacit understanding between the US, Russia, and China on the basis of "Let’s each of us take our neighbors, and let’s not mess with each other," we are building the "perfect storm" for a world war. The US, Russia, and China could wage war against Europe, Ukraine, Canada, Mexico, Taiwan, and others, where a lot of unpredictable alliances could emerge. And, just like during World War II, we may see big allies switch sides, like China going against Russia, or the US initially being friendly with Russia until they change their minds, as Hitler did with the Russians.

However, an emboldened Putin means an attack on the Baltics, as well as the Nordics from the Arctic Circle. An emboldened Trump means a military seizure of all of North America, from Greenland to Panama. An emboldened Xi Jinping means an attack on Taiwan and the Philippines, and an emboldened Netanyahu means a complete capture of Gaza and an attack on Iran, Jordan, and others.

This is a world that will become truly dangerous to everyone, as no place will be safe, with all continents under war in one way or another.

The Positive?

• Putin shot himself in the foot by invading Ukraine, and he doesn’t realize it yet, but he will bleed to death. It’s going to take more time than we would like, but Russia will eventually collapse, just like the USSR.
• Xi Jinping and his CCP mafia shot themselves in the belly with their catastrophic mismanagement. The collapse is underway, but the West doesn’t realize the full extent of it, as the Chinese economic miracle has brutally stopped.
• Half of US citizens shot themselves in the head by electing Donald Trump. At that pace, the likelihood of a civil war in the US is about 35% in the next 5 years, for a variety of reasons that go beyond this article.
• Ukraine will eventually win, as Russia will collapse under the weight of its own lies.

As a result, Europe is the last beacon of hope in this dark era, as a somewhat grouped, developed continent sharing similar values and culture. In a curious twist of history, we may become the biggest brain magnet of modern history, replacing the US as the leading engine of innovation, crushing Russia, and fiercely defending our freedom and way of life. We still have our problems, starting with our emboldened far-right parties here, so we are not completely out of the woods yet, but in the given context, Europe is where I have the highest hopes so far.