The Danger of Wartime Elections in Ukraine

Introduction

The cornerstone of any thriving democracy is the regular cycle of elections, a mechanism designed to prevent the excessive consolidation of power and potential abuse. However, in the unique case of Ukraine, currently embroiled in an ongoing conflict, conducting elections during wartime presents two significant challenges: security and representativeness.

Security: Voting Places as Targets

In a democratic election, voting centers, by their very nature, are crowded places. This is an inherent requirement of the democratic process — to gather the opinions of all citizens within a specified timeline. However, these crowded civilian spaces have historically been attractive targets for Russia, as evidenced by events over the past two years.

Publicly disclosed voting locations and schedules, necessary to facilitate the democratic process, unfortunately offer easy targets. The fear of potential Russian attacks alone could dissuade a significant portion of the Ukrainian population from participating, thus undermining the legitimacy of the election results.

Moreover, the threat of large-scale attacks using multiple missiles, which are difficult to intercept and provide timely warnings for, is a serious concern. Russia's recent stockpiling of newly produced missiles over the past six months underscores the gravity of this threat.

Representativity: The Challenge of the Displaced

The principle of representativeness in a democratic election is equally challenged during wartime. A significant portion of Ukraine's population is currently displaced due to the conflict.

Approximately one-third of Ukraine's population resides in occupied territories where elections cannot feasibly be conducted. Additionally, Ukrainian soldiers engaged in active duty cannot leave the frontlines to vote. While remote voting — either paper-based or electronic — is theoretically possible, it presents significant logistical and psychological challenges. The sheer stress of evaluating candidates and making informed decisions while under the constant threat of artillery fire is unimaginable.

Furthermore, about 20% of Ukraine's population is currently refugees in various countries worldwide. Many of these individuals are grappling with precarious living conditions and struggling to meet their basic needs. The logistical challenges of conducting overseas voting are daunting, and expecting these individuals, preoccupied with survival, to participate meaningfully in an election is unrealistic.

The issue of representativeness extends to potential candidates as well. Those who are refugees, soldiers, or residents in occupied territories face insurmountable barriers to running for office.

Conclusion

Given these significant challenges, Ukraine should consider postponing elections until a more stable climate is achieved. Alternatively, the country could explore logistical solutions that reduce the burden of voting, such as online voting. While this would not fully address the issue of representativeness, it could potentially mitigate some of the security concerns.

Ukraine has already made strides in this direction with the introduction of electronic IDs, similar to the model used in Estonia. However, it will take more time for the entire population to adapt to this system. In the interim, it is vital to ensure that any elections conducted are both secure and representative, upholding the democratic principles that Ukraine continues to fight for.

According to the Kyiv's International Institute of Sociology 81% of Ukrainian (november 2023) are in favor to postpone the election after the end of the war.