What If Trump Invaded Greenland?
Phase 1: Chaos
One quiet Tuesday afternoon, Trump unilaterally declares that Greenland belongs to him. Without consulting anyone, he hastily signs a presidential decree “authorizing” the annexation of Greenland, in front of a press corps stunned by such a statement. Within hours, a U.S. frigate patrolling the region receives instructions from the Pentagon. Before dawn on Wednesday, the frigate docks at Nuuk, Greenland’s capital, deploying a small military convoy.
The convoy heads directly to City Hall. Local police offer formal but non-violent protests as U.S. soldiers enter the mayor’s office and inform him that he is relieved of duty — the American government is now in charge. By the afternoon, the public learns via local TV and radio that a new government is in place and Greenland is now “American.” Occupation authorities begin registering residents and issuing new ID cards and documents in the following weeks.
Phase 2: Global Shock
Within 24h, around the world, shockwaves spread. European capitals are stunned by the blatant violation of national sovereignty. Trump, unfazed, insists the move is a matter of “national security.” Denmark immediately summons the U.S. ambassador to lodge strong protests, but it’s too late — the U.S. has acted unilaterally and with force.
Washington issues thinly veiled threats of military retaliation should Denmark attempt to respond. Desperate, Denmark turns to the European Union. Ursula von der Leyen condemns the U.S. action in the strongest terms, calling it a grave breach of international norms by a supposed ally. Trump shrugs it off, convinced he holds “all the cards”, to quote his imperialist jargon.
Phase 3: International Condemnation
Europe, realizing the U.S. has gone rogue, calls for an emergency United Nations General Assembly.
In an unprecedented move, Trump physically blocks access to the UN headquarters in New York, citing “public safety concerns” and imposing a temporary lockdown.
The UN moves the session to Geneva. There, nations from across the world vote to condemn the American annexation. Only a handful of nations, including Israel and a few U.S.-dependent microstates, abstain or side with the U.S. Russia and China abstain. But the vote is purely symbolic. Nothing changes in the near term. Trump doesn’t back down.
Several countries try to talk to Trump, to negotiate with him, expecting that he will change his mind. Some suggest that things will improve with the next US President, but they still don’t understand that there won’t be any free and fair elections anymore in the US in the foreseable future.
Phase 4: Fallout
Meanwhile, NATO allies across Europe, Canada, Australia, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan go on high alert.
The U.S., the cornerstone of NATO, has violated its foundational treaty. Europe suddenly realizes it can no longer count on American military support — half of its defense systems, from planes to missiles, rely on U.S. parts and software. Much of its firepower becomes obsolete without the necessary maintenance.
Denmark, as a NATO member, invokes Article 5, calling for a collective response. But the U.S. uses its veto power to block any action. In response, a “coalition of the willing,” led by France and the UK, forms a NATO 2.0 without the United States.
After days of deliberation, UE will not declare war to the US. Instead, economic sanctions are imposed. Trade with the U.S. is cut off, made easier by Trump’s already aggressive tariff policies.
Phase 5: Escalation
But things don’t stop there.
Canada, now surrounded by an increasingly hostile U.S. and stripped of key military capabilities, becomes the next target. Emboldened by his Greenland “success,” Trump ramps up pressure on Canada, mimicking Putin’s post-Crimea strategy.
Europe responds by deploying four nuclear submarines, 2 french ones and 2 UK ones, to Canadian waters as a show of support, as they already did in early 2025. Unlike Greenland, Canada will not go quietly, and nuclear stakes are now on the table, because both the US and EU needs the vital natural ressources of Canada.
Back in the U.S., the population is stunned, but not in revolt. Trump, having consolidated control over media and social platforms, suppresses dissent intellectually first, then physically. Free speech becomes constitutional in name only. Protest leaders are labeled “troublemakers“ or “terrorists” and jailed. The courts, stacked with Trump loyalists, uphold draconian new laws. Political opponents, especially Democrats, are systematically harassed and threatened with prison.
Both chambers of Congress are under Trump’s control, allowing him to enact virtually any law he wants. In fact, he doesn’t even bother with legislation anymore, as he currently governs directly by presidential decree, knowing that Congress won’t push back.
Fox News becomes the official state broadcaster. Independent media are shut out. Slowly but surely, Americans are indoctrinated to view Canada and Europe as enemies. Support for isolation and aggression rises. Public polls show a rapid increase — from 1% to 20% in under a year — of Americans who view Canada and the EU as “hostile to U.S. interests.”. This is not fiction, this is already happening.
Internet freedoms erode. Trump grants telecoms the power to create the tiered, pay-to-access internet, they ask for decades. Social network platforms full of Trump’s misinformation like X/Twitter and Truth Social are included in basic packages, while “woke” or independent networks become premium, an effective censorship tool by pricing out dissent.
By 2028, the invasion of Canada begins. Trump uses it near the end of its regular presidential mandate to declare martial law and suspend future elections, staying in power indefinitely. U.S. citizens largely support it, believing they are “liberating Canadians from woke tyranny.” Nuclear threats are issued against France and the UK to prevent intervention. Europe provides Canada with weapons, as it did with Ukraine, but avoids direct conflict.
A Canadian resistance forms, mirroring the Ukrainian struggle, fighting from the interior against occupation, with their survival hanging by a thread.
Phase 6: War in Europe
Meanwhile, Putin watches gleefully. With NATO fractured, he invades the Baltic states. Not to conquer, but to provoke a war declaration that would justify mass mobilization in Russia. Ten million russian troops are raised to assault the Nordics, Baltics, and Ukraine, now severely weakened.
If Ukraine falls, its population becomes cannon fodder for a new front against Poland, which won’t withstand the numbers. Germany, outnumbered 10-to-1, collapses next. Even nuclear retaliation from France won’t stop Putin russian civilian deaths will only fuel his propaganda. France falls by 2032, and the rest of Europe soon follows.
This is the path we may face if we remain complacent.
But history is not yet written. A different future is possible.
If we act decisively, prepare seriously, and mobilize with the urgency and yet calmness of a nation like Finland. With enough planes, drones and missiles, we could deter Trump and Putin and even survive nuclear escalation.
But the current chapter? It’s off to a disastrous start. Europe has been too slow, too timid, and far too divided.
We can’t afford to just talk. We don’t have 5 years ahead of us. We need to act much faster.